"Energy prices will increase by 24%" - World Bank forecast for 2026. Cause, the war in the Middle East
Energy prices are expected to rise by 24% in 2026, to their highest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine four years ago, if the sharpest disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East end in May, the World Bank said.
Commodity prices could rise further if conflict in the region escalates and supply disruptions last longer than expected, the global development bank said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
The bank said its base case scenario assumed that shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz would gradually return to pre-war levels by October, but said risks were "clearly tilted" to the upside.
The bank's baseline forecast predicts a 16% increase in overall commodity prices in 2026, given rising energy and fertilizer prices and record prices for some key metals.
Attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipping in the strait, which before the war carried 35% of global seaborne crude oil trade, have caused the biggest oil supply shock ever recorded, the World Bank said.
Brent crude oil prices remained more than 50% higher in mid-April than they were at the start of the year. Brent crude is forecast to average $86 per barrel in 2026, a significant increase from $69 per barrel in 2025, the bank said.
The price of Brent oil could average $115 per barrel this year if critical oil and gas facilities suffer more damage from the war and export volumes recover slowly, she said.
"The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will raise interest rates and make debt even more expensive," the World Bank said.
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