"Global oil supply exceeds expectations" - IEA predicts slowdown in demand due to electric cars
Global oil supply will grow faster than expected this year as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members abandon production cuts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
According to the Agency, global supply is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, 380,000 barrels per day more than the previous forecast.
OPEC+ is pumping more crude into the market after the group decided to lift the last layer of production cuts in May and June sooner than planned. The extra supply, along with concerns about President Donald Trump’s tariffs, helped push oil prices to a four-year low earlier this month. Although the Energy Information Administration saw a small increase of 20,000 barrels per day compared to its forecast this year, bringing the total to 740,000 barrels per day, the pace of growth will slow in the rest of the year to 650,000 barrels per day.
"Signs of a slowdown in global oil demand growth may already be emerging," the agency reported, adding that economic difficulties, combined with record sales of electric vehicles, are reducing demand.
Saudi Arabia is the only country with room to add barrels to the market, based on current production levels, after the OPEC+ group agreed to a second monthly production increase for June at its last meeting.
Total oil demand will average 103.90 million barrels per day this year, the agency said, an upward revision compared with 103.54 million barrels per day last month.
Next year, the Agency sees an increase in demand of an average of 760,000 barrels per day, with supply increasing by 970,000 barrels per day, also implying a surplus.
The report also revised downward its forecast for US shale oil growth by 40,000 barrels per day in 2025 and by 190,000 barrels per day in 2026, citing lower prices.
A few days ago, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for oil supply growth from the US and other producers outside the broader OPEC+ group for 2025.
Lower oil prices are also affecting Russia, as monthly oil revenues fell to their lowest level since June 2023, to $13.2 billion, during April.
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