IMF warns countries - “Abandon extensive fuel subsidies”

The war in the Middle East has intensified pressures on an already fragile global fiscal situation, with higher interest rates and rising energy prices already prompting calls for support from emerging markets and developing economies, the International Monetary Fund said.
According to the institution, countries should abandon fuel subsidies to help their citizens cope with oil shortages and the corresponding increase in energy prices and instead opt for temporary and targeted cash transfers.
The IMF cut its economic forecast due to rising energy prices caused by the war and supply disruptions, saying the global economy could tip into recession if the war widens and oil stays above $100 a barrel until 2027.
According to the IMF, the imposition of export controls, the extent of damage to energy infrastructure, and the ability of other countries to increase oil production will determine the impact of the war and its political implications.
Once current tensions ease, it was essential for countries to remain focused on medium-term challenges in an environment where public debt continues to rise, driven by permanent expanded spending on social assistance programs or reduced revenues, particularly in some of the largest economies.
The IMF's advice was simple: "Rebuild fiscal reserves as soon as conditions stabilize, and do so without delay."
Global government debt reached 93.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025, almost two percentage points higher than 92% a year earlier, and was expected to reach 100% of GDP by 2029, a year earlier than expected just a year ago.
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