Birth projection, decline warns of crisis/ Demographic decline deepens in every region of the country, Gjirokastra most affected
Albania is facing an alarming drop in birth rates, signaling a deep demographic crisis affecting every corner of the country. Comparative data from 2011 with projections for 2025 show an average decrease of 37.2% nationally, but in some regions, the decline is much deeper.
The hardest hit region is Gjirokastra, where births have more than halved, from 175 births in the first quarter of 2011 to only 76 in the same period of the current year in 2025, a drop of 56.6%. The situation is equally dramatic in Berat with a drop of 54.7%, in Kukës with 53.2%, in Elbasan with 51.3% and in Fier with 50.7%.
Even the largest regions are not immune to this decline. Tirana, although maintaining the highest number of births in the country and an increase in population between the two Census periods, has suffered a decline of 15.4%, dropping from 2,068 births in 2011 to 1,750 in 2025.
In Durrës, often seen as a region with population growth due to internal migration, births have fallen by 22.4%, while Shkodra and Lezha have experienced decreases of 40.3% and 42.7%, respectively.
This trend is not only observed in Albania, but is a global trend. However, Albania is experiencing a significant decline in births, and data from the last 15 years makes this trend clear. In 2011, 7,425 children were born across the country in the first three months alone. In the first quarter of 2025, this number had dropped to 4,662 births in less than a decade and a half.
Based on this very consistent downward trend, let's make a simple projection for the next five years, taking as a basis the average rate of decline in births each year. According to the figures, there has been an average annual decline of about 3.5% to 4% per year, especially in recent years. Let's build a linear model that predicts that if this trend continues without interruption, births will continue to fall. In the next five years, there would be about 4,000 births in the first quarter alone.
These figures are not simply statistical indicators, but a clear signal of a trend that will have long-term consequences for the labor market, the pension system, and the country's economic development.
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