Oil risks "freezing" wages - Analysis/ High prices, pressure on businesses

The increase in oil prices in early March 2026 has brought a shock wave to transportation and production costs, exerting direct pressure on the prices of services and daily consumption. But this increase may also have direct consequences on the salaries of Albanian citizens.
According to an ALTAX analysis, it is predicted that the conflict in the Middle East could slow real wage growth, especially for energy-sensitive sectors such as transport, services and light industry, increasing the need for fiscal policies and compensation mechanisms to preserve workers' purchasing power.
In this context, referring to the analysis, the trend towards higher wages and concentration in key professions and sectors remains a stabilizing factor, providing a basis to withstand the expected inflationary impacts during 2026.
In the short term, labor market dynamics, combined with wage growth, suggest relative resistance to price increases, however inflationary effects may affect the pace of real growth in employee income.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the average gross salary per employee reached 86,984 lekë, marking an increase of 4.3%, compared to the same 3 months of 2024 and an increase of 4.4% compared to the third quarter of 2025. The distribution of salaries shows a stable distribution towards high salaries where the share of employees with salaries over 120 thousand lekë increased from 14.1% to 16.2%, while the minimum wage fell from 14.2% to 12.8%.
On the labor market side, the participation of the population aged 15–64 in the labor force was 75.9%, increasing by 0.4 percentage points compared to the same quarter of 2024, but marking a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the third quarter of 2025.
The analysis by sector shows that agriculture recorded a modest increase in employment, industry a slight decrease, while services continued to be the sector with the greatest impact on labor market development. This structure indicates an orientation towards sectors with higher wages and more economic stability.
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