"Earth will warm by 2.8 degrees by 2100" - UN report: Countries far from meeting climate targets
The Earth risks warming by 2.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century unless additional measures are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, according to the Annual Emissions Gap Report 2025, published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The document analyses the gap between the current global emissions flow and the level needed to meet international climate targets.
Ten years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the report says the pact has played a key role in reducing global temperature projections and boosting renewable energy. However, countries' slow progress in reducing emissions makes it possible to exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit above pre-industrial levels, possibly within this decade.
Under the agreement, countries must submit nationally determined contributions every five years, which set out plans for reducing emissions and adapting to climate change.
As of September 30, 2025, only 64 signatory countries, representing 63% of global emissions, had submitted or announced plans with targets for 2035. Only 13 countries, accounting for less than 1% of global emissions, had updated their targets. The report also highlights a large implementation gap: most countries are not on track to meet even the 2030 targets, let alone those for 2035.
If all contributions were fully implemented, the global average temperature would rise by 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, a slight improvement over last year’s forecast of 2.6–2.8 degrees. But if current policies remain in place, warming will reach 2.8 degrees, slightly less than the 3.1 degrees previously predicted.
Full implementation of all measures by 2035 would reduce emissions by 12%–15% compared to 2019 levels. If the United States were to stay out of the Paris Agreement, the figure would shrink to 9%–11%. The numbers remain far from the targets: a 35% reduction would limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius, while a 55% reduction would keep it within the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit.
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