WTO raises global trade forecast - But tariffs expected to slow economy next year
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly increased its forecast for global trade growth in 2025, but at the same time warned that the outlook for next year has worsened.
In its latest report, the WTO forecast that trade volume expansion in 2025 would reach 2.4%, a significant increase from its previous forecast of just 0.9% in August. However, the outlook for next year is much bleaker. The organization significantly lowered its expectations for 2026, from 1.8% to just 0.5%.
Global trade is expected to slow next year due to a weakening global economy and the full impact of trade tariffs, which have become a major obstacle to trade since US President Donald Trump significantly expanded the tax regime in April, surprising both allies and rivals, the WTO said.
In the first half of 2025, global trade volume grew by 4.9% compared to the same period a year earlier. This was the result of several factors, including accelerated purchases by US companies before the new tariffs took effect. In addition, favorable macroeconomic conditions, such as low inflation and supportive fiscal policies, increased real incomes and spending in major economies.
Another important factor was the expansion of emerging markets and demand for artificial intelligence-related goods, such as semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment. According to the WTO, spending on innovative technology accounted for almost half of all growth in global trade in the first six months of the year, up 20% in value compared to a year earlier.
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