Olive oil prices, heading for a decline? - The world's largest producer, optimistic after the industry crisis
Spanish company Deoleo, the world's largest producer of olive oil, says that abundant harvests and improving market sentiment show that the industry is recovering from one of the most difficult periods in its history.
A bumper olive harvest, particularly in Spain, has helped restore confidence in the sector and led to a sharp drop in supermarket prices for olive oil. This follows two consecutive seasons of poor production, which caused an extraordinary period of turmoil throughout the supply chain.
A "perfect storm" of extreme weather caused by climate change, high interest rates and strong inflation led to a dizzying rise in oil prices last year, a development that surprised consumers and industry experts.
However, official sources at Deoleo explain that a “major change” is now taking place. “What was once one of the most challenging periods in our history, marked by raw material shortages, strong price fluctuations and a decline in consumption, is now giving way to a more stable and promising market,” they say.
Deoleo expects a more controlled price environment for raw materials to continue through the second half of 2025. “The significant increase in olive oil production, especially in Spain, is already bringing a more stable supply and this has a direct impact on prices,” the sources add.
The majority of global olive oil production comes from Mediterranean countries, with countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece being among the world's largest producers. Spain, in particular, is the largest producer in the European Union and a global benchmark for prices in the sector.
According to Spain's Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, the country produced 1.41 million tons of olive oil during the 2024/2025 agricultural season. This amount, although slightly lower than expected, represents an increase of around 65% compared to 855,600 tons the previous year.
Deoleo stressed that the record harvest in Spain has caused a 50% drop in raw material prices, boosting demand and enabling the company to lower the prices of olive oil on store shelves.
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