China, new measures to encourage births - Lowering the marriage age is proposed to curb population "shrinkage"
China is proposing to lower the legal age of marriage to encourage births. It is one of the proposals being considered this week by the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, one of Beijing's top governing bodies.
The initiative, specifically, consists of reducing the legal age of marriage to 18 for both sexes, compared to the current 22 for men and 20 for women. The idea comes from a professor of econometrics at Peking University, a member of the same Conference, convinced that this measure could help increase birth rates, which have been declining for some time.
In fact, this issue has been at the center of public debate in China for years. In 2022, the population shrank for the first time in sixty years, and, according to experts, the decline is expected to continue. This trend is driven not only by the high cost of living, but also by socio-cultural factors, such as the choice to marry and have children at a later age.
The legal age limit of 22 for men and 20 for women was introduced around 1980, in connection with the “one-child” policy, when the Beijing government aimed to curb population growth. Over time, Chinese society has learned to carefully plan marriage and children, prioritizing study, work, and consolidating one’s economic position.
According to the latest data, in 2020 the average age at first marriage was around 29 for men and 28 for women. For many observers, even if the law allows marriage at the age of 18, it would be unlikely that consolidated customs would suddenly change: the high cost of quality education and competition in the labor market are actually encouraging young people to postpone marriage and starting a family.
Many people believe that the real obstacle to childbearing is not the legal age of marriage, but the economic pressures that weigh on young people. The high costs of raising children, from healthcare to school fees, discourage many couples, especially in big cities, where the pace of life is frantic and housing is expensive.
Others, however, openly criticize the idea of lowering the marriage age, fearing that it risks "instrumentalizing" the young population, considering it a source of new births for the exclusive benefit of national statistics. The proponent of the measure responded that his initiative also includes additional suggestions, such as economic incentives and the strengthening of medical services dedicated to parents.
According to many economists' forecasts, the Chinese government will set an economic growth target of around 5%. But there are many unknowns: domestic demand remains weak after long periods of health restrictions, and exports face tariffs and tensions from the United States.
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