"Global oil demand to rise through 2029" - IEA predicts high consumption despite China's slowdown
Global oil demand will continue to grow until near the end of this decade, despite China, the main importer, peaking in 2027. Growth will continue as cheaper gasoline and the slowing spread of electric vehicles in the United States support consumption, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
This Agency, which advises industrialized countries, did not change its forecast that global demand will peak by 2029, but sees demand in China peaking earlier, due to the expansion of electric vehicles.
Its view contrasts with that of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which says consumption will continue to grow and has not yet predicted a peak point.
Oil demand will peak at 105.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029 and then decline slightly in 2030, according to the Paris-based agency. At the same time, global production capacity is projected to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day, to 114.7 million bpd, by 2030.
The conflict between Israel and Iran has highlighted supply risks in the Middle East, pushing up oil prices. However, recent forecasts suggest sufficient supplies through 2030, barring major disruptions, the report said. The agency said the global market appears well-supplied this year, as supply growth outstrips demand.
Global demand will increase by 720,000 barrels per day this year, 20,000 barrels less than last month's forecast. While supply will expand by 1.8 million barrels per day, 200,000 more than last month, partly due to increased OPEC+ production.
After decades of leading global oil demand, China's contribution is shrinking as it faces economic challenges and shifts toward electric vehicles.
The world's second-largest economy is expected to see its oil consumption peak in 2027, following the rise in electric car sales, the deployment of high-speed rail and trucks running on natural gas.
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