2025, a historic year for gold - Could its value increase further next year?
2025 was a historic year for gold, with a more than 60% increase in value, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar. For the coming year, economists predict a relatively stable market, but there is no shortage of alternative scenarios.
2025 was a historic year for gold, with a gain of over 60% and the achievement of more than 50 new records. The expansion in value put the precious metal on track to achieve its most successful year since 1979.
After this extraordinary rise, investors and analysts are considering whether the trend can continue in 2026. Unlike previous years, where a single event influenced the price movement, during 2025 gold prices were driven by a combination of factors. Central banks continuously bought the metal, while geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainty, low interest rates and a weakening US dollar also contributed to the increase in demand. According to the World Gold Council, geopolitical tensions and a weakening US dollar made significant contributions to the annual performance, while investor positioning and economic expansion further added to the strength of the growth.
However, 2026 starts from a different fundamental point; gold prices have already reflected macroeconomic expectations of steady global growth, modest rate cuts in the US and a relatively stable dollar. In this environment, gold appears fairly valued, with real interest rates not expected to fall significantly. Investor risk appetite is expected to remain balanced. Therefore, in the base case scenario, gold is expected to trade within a narrow range of –5% to +5% during 2026.
However, there are several alternative scenarios that could change this trajectory. In the event of slower growth and a moderate reduction in Federal Reserve rates, gold could rise 5–15% as investors shift to safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, a deeper recession would boost the metal’s value by 15–30%, due to more aggressive monetary easing, falling Treasury yields, and strong investor flows to safe-haven assets.
On the other hand, if the Trump administration's policies succeed in reviving economic growth, a return to reflation could raise interest rates and the dollar, shrinking the price of gold by 5% to 20%.
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