Risks to the global economy increase in 2025 - Economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions threaten global stability
According to the World Bank, the poorest countries are in their worst economic condition in two decades, having missed out on the post-pandemic recovery. The last thing they need is weaker terms of trade or financing.
In richer economies, governments must work to counter the belief among many voters that their purchasing power, living standards and future prospects are declining. Failure to do so could fuel the growth of extremist parties that have already caused fragmented parliaments.
If governments decide to do what they have been doing for years, accumulating more debt, then they risk being caught in a financial crisis.
It is still too early to tell if Trump will continue with tariffs of 10-20% on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods, or if those threats were just the first step in negotiations.
China, the world's second-largest economy, faces growing pressure to begin a deep transition as the growth momentum of recent years winds down. Economists say it needs to end over-reliance on manufacturing and put more money in the pockets of low-income citizens.
Europe must tackle a number of major problems, from a lack of investment to political deadlock in the eurozone's two largest economies, Germany and France.
For many other economies, the prospect of a stronger dollar if Trump's policies create inflation and slow the pace of interest rate cuts is bad news. This would drive investment away from them and make their dollar debt more expensive.
Finally, the impact of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, which could have consequences on the cost of energy that drives the world economy, must be calculated.
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