Cocoa, the top performer in 2024 - Chocolate's main ingredient even outperformed bitcoin
The "journey" of cocoa this year seemed to be endless. The chocolate staple is expected to be the biggest gainer among major commodities in 2024, outperforming even the US stock market and bitcoin, with prices more than doubling this year to hit a record high this month.
The 2023-2024 cocoa trading season ended with the largest global supply deficit in 60 years.
Cocoa for March delivery was valued at $11,954 per metric ton last week, up nearly 185% year-on-year. According to preliminary measurements, the nearly 128% gain for bitcoin and 25% for the S&P 500 this year pales in comparison to this performance.
As experts point out, the main factor driving the increase in cocoa prices throughout the year is the unfavorable weather conditions in Ivory Coast in West Africa. Looking at futures, concern about long-term supply and demand is telling.
Record high temperatures "have worsened an already problematic situation for West African cocoa crops that have been hit by extreme weather for two years", experts explain. October rains again destroyed crops in parts of West Africa, as did the hot and dry Harmattan winds that form over the Sahara.
The winds will threaten the "intermediate crop" of cocoa, which is usually harvested in the spring. "That will put even more strain on short-term supplies, but we are at historically high prices and the question is whether consumer demand will drop at some point."
The International Cocoa Organization forecast a global cocoa production deficit of 478,000 tonnes for the 2023-2024 season, which runs until the end of September. Year-on-year, it expects global production for the season to fall 13.1% and end-season stocks to fall 26.8%.
Prices hit an all-time high of $12,931 on December 18, and so far this hasn't changed consumer demand.
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