The war has also increased the price of aluminum - Forecasts indicate further price increases
The price of aluminum, a key industrial metal used in automobile manufacturing, has risen as production cuts in the Gulf region, logistical constraints and Iranian attacks on two regional producers over the weekend tightened supplies.
On March 31, the quarterly aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to US$3,535 per metric ton, an increase of about 40% on an annual basis.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched missile and drone attacks on aluminum factories in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, which are linked to the US military and aerospace industries, in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks on Iranian steel plants.
Emirates Global Aluminium issued a statement saying that its factory in Al Taweela in the Khalifa Economic Zone in Abu Dhabi was severely damaged following Iranian attacks, with several employees injured.
The two aluminum plants have a combined annual production of 3.2 million tons, more than half of the approximately 6 million tons of aluminum produced annually by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states. The region is a key source of aluminum supply, accounting for about 9 percent of global production.
Goldman Sachs raised its LME aluminum price forecast from $3,200 to $3,450 per tonne in the second quarter of 2026 following the attacks on the facilities.
Goldman Sachs also forecast a global primary aluminum market supply deficit of 570,000 tons in 2026, a significant turnaround from its previous forecast of a surplus of 550,000 tons.
Analysts point out that the aluminum market is currently facing multiple shocks, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, aluminum production facilities in the Persian Gulf damaged or even closed, and production in other parts of the world currently limited.
The impact will also spread to manufacturing companies in the coming months, with higher-cost aluminum alloys, used primarily in the aerospace, automotive and construction industries, facing the most limited supply, analysts said.
The Gulf region has long been an important source of these high-end products, particularly for the European market, and also supplies manufacturers in the United States.
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