Cocoa crisis is reaching its peak - Price has increased by 54% since the end of 2024
The global cocoa crisis continues to deepen, with hopes of recovery fading and prices reaching unprecedented heights. The surge in cocoa prices has caused global concern, as the product is the basis for the chocolate industry.
Since the end of 2024, the price of cocoa has risen by 54%, with the latest price reaching $11,242 per ton, while in January 2024 it was just $4,000. Futures supplies for the commodity rose by 8% to $11,242, after a large purchase by Hershey, which is stockpiling the product without waiting for prices to fall, further increasing pressure on the market. According to the International Cocoa Trade Organization, the global deficit reached 478,000 tons last year, the largest in more than 60 years.
The cocoa crisis is closely linked to conditions in West Africa, particularly Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which account for 55% of global production. Climate change and the El Niño phenomenon have played a role. High temperatures and drought have reduced production to a minimum. Diseases such as black mold and the new CCSV virus have destroyed a large part of the crop, with the latter reducing production by up to 50%.
The high cost of production is a concern. Rising fertilizer prices and financial pressures from high interest rates are worsening the situation.
Cocoa stocks are at their lowest level in 36 years, with only 1.3 million tonnes available globally. High cocoa prices have directly impacted demand. According to the data, chocolate production grew by just 0.7% in 2024, despite a previous decline of 4.2% in 2023. This shows that the industry is struggling to manage high prices and shortages.
The World Cocoa Council forecasts a modest 17% increase in production for the 2024-2025 season, but this recovery is considered insufficient. Prospects for improvement remain uncertain, especially if extreme weather conditions continue.
The World Bank estimates that prices will fall slightly by 13% in 2025 and 2% in 2026. However, the need for high prices remains essential to curb excess demand.
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