Six months into the war in Iran - The conflict that would last a few weeks has no end in sight
Friday marked six months since the United States and Israel launched combat operations in Iran, as Tehran retaliated by attacking targets across the Persian Gulf and sparking a new war in the Middle East.
The conflict, which was expected to last only a few weeks, has evolved into a stalemate that geopolitical analysts say has no end in sight. But the nature of the war has also changed, with the White House shifting its focus to increasing financial pressure on Iran and its trading partners.
But the trajectory of the conflict remains deeply uncertain. Ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz continue to be attacked, peace talks appear to have failed, and there are questions about whether the Trump administration is willing to extend sanctions to China, one of Iran's largest trading partners.
Oil prices remain volatile amid ongoing uncertainty. Brent crude futures have risen by almost 20% since the start of the war, hitting a high of around $126 a barrel in April. Stock markets, on the other hand, have largely shrugged off the potential fallout from the conflict, with global stocks rising this year as optimism over corporate earnings outweighed concerns about the war’s implications for the global economy.
According to analysts, the United States could respond militarily if American ships or personnel are attacked, but added that the Iranian leadership is prepared to endure great hardship and cause great pain to its own people.
If the new approach succeeds in crippling Iran’s economy, there’s a good chance Tehran will escalate the situation militarily or damage its neighbors’ ability to export. Trump recently declared that he was prepared to continue the war with Iran for as long as necessary. But experts say the lack of clarity about Washington’s objectives makes it difficult to determine what would actually constitute mission accomplished for the White House.
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