Is Europe prepared for war? - With US support decreasing, NATO is strengthening its eastern border with Russia
Camouflaged soldiers, guns at the ready, artillery and then explosions on the border between Russia and Finland. It may look like a war scene, but these are the exercises that take place every month among recruits of the "Finnish Border Guard".
"In Finland, defending the country is a really important value," says recruit Milja Sandhu. "Everyone has asked to be here and the motivation is really high. This call may sound more realistic in times like these," she adds.
Her platoon mate, Kasperi Luoto, describes it as “a calling.” “Finland has a really high level of readiness to defend itself.” The war in Europe has changed the way people want to serve,” he says.
The subtext of this war game is extremely serious. Finland's entry into NATO in 2023 doubled the defensive alliance's border with Russia to nearly 2,600 km, stretching from the Arctic to Belarus.
While Moscow is currently busy with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many along this border expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to one day turn his attention to NATO’s eastern flank. The Russian economy is already geared toward conflict, and Putin’s imperial ambitions could mean it will continue to seek conquests elsewhere.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned last month that Moscow could be ready to use force against the alliance “within five years.” “Let’s not kid ourselves, we are all on the eastern flank now,” Rutte said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky later said Russia was planning “new military operations on NATO territory,” in a speech at the alliance’s summit.
While US President Donald Trump assured allies upon arriving at the summit that he was "with them all the way," he spooked European capitals hours earlier with a suggestion that the military alliance's mutual defense pact, known as Article 5, was open to interpretation.
His presidency has raised major questions about how strong and long-lasting the American security guarantee will be, putting Europe's defense capabilities under the microscope in a way not seen in decades.
Fogh Rasmussen, NATO Secretary General from 2009 to 2014, suggests that Putin will gain confidence and an “appetite for even more territory” if he is allowed to succeed in Ukraine. “He will put pressure on the Baltic states. And when an American president publicly raises doubts about his commitment to Article 5, it could tempt Putin to test NATO’s resolve,” Rasmussen says.
Moscow is already taking steps to increase its regional presence. Satellite images show increased activity at Russian bases near NATO's eastern flank, including the Levashovo, Kamenka and Olenya airfields, which were the targets of drone attacks from Ukraine.
New storage buildings are seen about 175 km from the Finnish border, while areas have been cleared and new tarmac laid for aircraft at the Severomorsk-1 air base, about 120 km east of Norway.
Many of NATO's member countries in Eastern Europe are rushing to increase their defense spending to fill gaps in military capabilities under pressure from Russia and Trump.
NATO allies reaffirmed their “unwavering commitment to collective defense” at the recent summit, and agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP over the next decade, although there is some flexibility regarding the amount they will commit to frontline defense. Spain provided a controversial choice by promising to meet NATO’s capabilities goal at a lower cost.
But some question whether the additional investment will come quickly enough. “We all want to deter Russia, by showing strength, by increasing our capabilities. But on the other hand, Putin will do the math at some point if he thinks he can win. We need to make sure he doesn’t miscalculate,” says one intelligence official.
Military experts say Moscow’s interest in the border states is different from how it views Ukraine. Instead of a full-scale invasion, Putin is likely testing whether NATO would react. “For Russia, the strategic goal would be to destroy NATO; it’s not about buying a piece of land in the Baltics or elsewhere,” says Kristi Raik, director of the International Center for Defense and Security in Estonia.
At the northernmost point of the eastern flank is Norway. It shares a 200km border with Russia, and it is natural for European countries to increase their military presence there. The Norwegian government plans to expand from 1 military brigade to 3 by 2032, with two stationed in the north.
Its ground forces in the border region of Finnmark, where many road signs are in Norwegian and Russian, will be supplemented with air defense weapons, an artillery and light infantry battalion, an intelligence company and a dedicated rapid reaction force. Elsewhere in northern Norway, a new heavy infantry brigade will be raised.
Norway's Prime Minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, says that, although there is no immediate threat, all countries on the front line are aware that Russia plans to re-establish its separate Moscow and Leningrad military districts, which were merged in 2010. It is a move that Western intelligence officials believe is aimed at doubling the number of Russian troops.
“Norway is not a threat to anyone, but it is our responsibility to make sure that no one comes up with the idea of threatening us,” says Støre. Few people think that a Russian attack on NATO would start in the cold north of mainland Norway.
But there are concerns about a small test in the demilitarized Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, which is Norwegian territory but also home to a Russian settlement.
Being in NATO for 20 years means the Baltic states feel more secure than they have for a long time. NATO’s growing presence in the Baltics can be seen at the large training range at Pabrada, near the Russian border in Lithuania, with satellite images showing new structures built between 2022-25 and higher levels of activity.
The Baltic states and Poland are leading the way in increasing military spending and are on track to meet Trump's 5% target next year. Pete Hegseth, the US secretary of defence, recently called the four countries "model allies".
Cross-border cooperation is also starting to take hold. Multinational battalions have been deployed in each of the Baltic states and in Poland, with Germany set to increase its presence in Lithuania in the coming years to a full brigade of around 5,000 soldiers – around seven times the current number. The idea is that foreign troops from countries such as the US, the UK, France and Canada will be involved from the start of any conflict.
Poland is also fortifying its borders, having already built a 5.5-meter-high steel fence along 186 kilometers of its border with Belarus, initially in response to the “hybrid war” it accused Belarus and Russia of waging in 2021 by encouraging illegal migrants to cross into Poland. Recently, Warsaw has reinforced this defense, installing night and thermal cameras, as well as building a new road to help patrol the border.
But Poland's most ambitious border defense project is the so-called "Eastern Shield," which includes a mix of air defense systems and ground infrastructure.
Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin called claims that Moscow was a growing threat "nonsense" and said Europe's rising military spending was "unreasonable."
But any failure to respond forcefully to future Russian aggression would signal the end of the alliance. So much may depend on whether Putin feels emboldened by the outcome of his war in Ukraine.
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