Political crisis threatens France - What are the next steps that President Macron could take?
France was once again engulfed in political turmoil after Prime Minister François Bayrou's government lost a crucial vote of confidence in parliament, forcing President Emmanuel Macron to seek a new replacement.
By 364 votes to 194, MPs rejected Bayrou’s plans to reduce public debt through deep budget cuts. The prime minister, who had been in office for less than a year, had put himself in a dangerous political position by seeking a confidence vote, hoping to secure lawmakers’ support for his economic reforms. But both the far left and the far right seized the opportunity to oust him, leaving France without a functioning parliamentary majority.
President Macron's office confirmed that he would accept Bayrou's resignation and appoint a new prime minister "in the coming days." Until then, Bayrou will remain in office in a caretaker role, dealing only with routine matters, according to the French constitution. This is the third time in the last two years that France has remained under the leadership of a caretaker government. Recall that in July 2024, former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal resigned, while in December of the same year, the government of Michel Barnier was overthrown.
Macron now faces two difficult options: appoint a new prime minister who can secure a majority in the divided parliament, or dissolve the National Assembly and call early elections. So far, he has been reluctant to pursue the path of new elections, but the ongoing deadlock could force him to change his mind.
If Macron decides to dissolve parliament, the French constitution requires elections to be held within 20 to 40 days. Although the president is not legally obligated to appoint a prime minister from the winning party, French political tradition dictates that he do so.
If a party manages to win an outright majority of seats in the National Assembly, Macron will be forced to appoint its leader as prime minister. A historical precedent is 1993, when Socialist President François Mitterrand was forced to appoint conservative Édouard Balladur as prime minister after a landslide victory for the right in legislative elections. If Macron were to ignore such a result and appoint an ally of his own, it is almost certain that a vote of no confidence would immediately topple that government.
Meanwhile, the political crisis comes at a time when France is facing serious economic challenges. The country's public debt has reached over 3.3 trillion euros, or 114% of Gross Domestic Product, the third highest in the eurozone after Greece and Italy. The budget deficit has touched 5.8% of GDP in 2023, almost double the 3% limit set by the European Union, and is expected to be 5.4% for 2025.
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