Moody's reaffirms Albania's rating at "Ba3" with a "stable" outlook
The international credit rating agency Moody's Ratings, in its periodic review conducted on March 5, 2026, has reaffirmed Albania's long-term sovereign credit rating at "Ba3" with a "stable" outlook.
Moody's assesses the sustainability of the Albanian economy and predicts a real GDP growth of 3.6% for 2025 and 3.5% for 2026. The economic growth outlook will be supported mainly by the performance of the tourism sector, the stable flow of Foreign Direct Investments, especially in energy and tourism, but also by higher labor market participation rates.
The agency estimates that, in fiscal terms, budget implementation has remained cautious during 2025. Moody's estimates the deficit at 1.8% of GDP in 2025, which has increased from 0.7% of GDP in 2024, but remains below the government target of 2.4%.
The agency projects that the debt-to-GDP ratio will decline slightly to around 51% in 2027 from 52.6% estimated for 2025, driven by strong economic growth and a balanced or slightly positive primary fiscal balance. The agency projects a further gradual reduction in public debt over the next three to five years, supported by the government's adherence to a prudent fiscal framework.
The “stable” outlook reflects Moody's assessment that the upside and downside risks to Albania's “Ba3” rating are balanced. The agency expects reforms for the EU accession process to continue, albeit at a gradual pace, and that government and banking sector liquidity risks remain contained.
This reaffirmation of the rating by Moody's is a very important indicator of Albania's macroeconomic stability and continued progress in structural reforms, sending a positive signal to international investors, as well as supporting the country's long-term European integration objectives.
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