Euro again in the "counting place" - BoA: "Stuck" below 100 lek. January's recovery, how much did it show in exports?
Since January, it seems that the euro-lek exchange rate is no longer showing signs of improvement. But how has it performed in the first two months of the year?
Throughout the first week of January, the lek remained relatively strong, fluctuating between 98.14 and 98.23, significantly lower than the rates observed in late January and February. After five months with the euro exchanging for less than 100 lek, January would mark a turning point.
The weakening trend of the lek began in mid-January and peaked at the end of the month. On just one day, on January 30, 2025, the rate reached its highest point at 100.06 lek per euro, marking the weakest moment for the lek in this period. At this point, more lek was required to buy one euro, indicating a devaluation, i.e. a weakening of the Albanian currency.
The reasons behind this devaluation may include higher demand for the euro, possible seasonal economic trends, intervention by the Bank of Albania, or external financial pressures affecting the Albanian economy.
After reaching its weakest point in late January, the lek began to regain strength in February. The exchange rate fell below 99 lek per euro again. Throughout February, the rate fluctuated in a narrow range between 98.76 and 99.23, showing less volatility compared to January.
Meanwhile, March has started with a stable exchange rate trend. Fluctuations are less extreme compared to January, suggesting a period of relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
The recovery of the euro in the first month of the year was reflected in foreign trade, with exports improving somewhat, while negatively affecting imports denominated in euros, as they became more expensive.
In January 2025, exports of goods reached the value of 31 billion lek, increasing by 4.9% compared to the same period a year earlier and increasing by 21.7% compared to December 2024. Imports of goods reached the value of 60 billion lek, increasing by 0.1% compared to a year earlier and decreasing by 23.5% compared to December 2024.
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