“Stronger exports will expand the economy” - World Bank expects the Western Balkans to grow by an average of 3.1% in 2026-27
The economy for six Western Balkan countries is forecast to grow by 3.1% on average in 2026 and 2027, thanks to stronger exports and public investment after a slowdown last year, the World Bank said.
Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia are forecast to grow by a combined 2.9% this year and 3.2% in 2027, with European Union-funded infrastructure projects and other public investments expected to offset potential moderation in consumption growth, the lender said.
While strong services exports, particularly tourism and information and communications technology, will also drive growth, consumption will slow as wage increases slow and investment weakens due to a fading tourism-led construction boom and weaker foreign direct investment (FDI) flows.
The energy price shock due to the war in Iran is expected to fuel inflation, disproportionately affecting the poorest households, reducing real wage growth and slowing the pace of poverty reduction, the bank said in a report.
He added that the Western Balkan countries, which all aspire to join the EU, could use industrial policies, such as a green transition, to strengthen their energy security and align their energy sectors with the EU's electricity integration package.
Governments in the region, where most countries remain heavily dependent on coal-fired power generation, should actively engage in the transition, supporting economic diversification in areas where entire local economies are built around extractive and heavy industries, the bank said.
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