Turkey, in the trap of double-digit inflation - Pressures are linked to food prices
The monthly inflation rate in Turkey is expected to increase significantly to 4.32%, driven by the annual minimum wage increase and various price adjustments for 2026, while the annual rate is seen slowing further.
The median estimate projects annual inflation to fall to 30.0%, with forecasts ranging from 29.9% to 30.4%. Monthly inflation forecasts range between 4.2% and 4.64%.
According to the median estimate from surveys, annual inflation is expected to slow to 23% by the end of the year, remaining above the central bank's forecast of 16%.
The central bank said that leading indicators reflect a strengthening monthly inflation in January, but the increase in the underlying inflation trend is limited.
Economists have said that annual changes in the inflation basket weights have made forecasting difficult. They also said that food prices will also affect inflation.
Financial services firm Morgan Stanley said that pressures related to food inflation and a slowdown in services inflation have prevented the decline in core inflation since May 2025.
"We expect a gradual decline in inflation to 21.7% by the end of 2026 and to 17.7% by the end of 2027. This path of inflation decline is supported by a stable exchange rate, moderate domestic demand, and improving inflation expectations," said the Morgan Stanley Institute.
The Turkish Statistical Institute will publish December inflation data on February 3.
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