Weather forecast with artificial intelligence - Warns of storms and heavy rainfall up to 4 hours in advance
A team of scientists from Hong Kong has developed an artificial intelligence (AI) weather forecasting system to predict storms and heavy rainfall up to four hours in advance, compared to current models that only give 20 minutes to two hours of warning.
The system would help governments and emergency services respond more effectively to extreme weather events that are increasingly frequent and linked to climate change.
The team built a new AI framework known as the Satellite Data-Based Deep Diffusion Model (DDMS). The model applies generative AI techniques, injecting noise into the training data so that the system learns to reverse the process and produce more accurate predictions.
The system is designed to predict severe convective weather, or intense storms, including torrential rain and sudden downpours, Su said at a news conference describing the team's work. The tool does not predict typhoons.
The researchers trained the model using infrared brightness temperature data collected between 2018 and 2021 by the Chinese Fengyun-4 satellite. This was combined with meteorological expertise to capture the evolution of convective cloud systems and was later validated with spring and summer samples from 2022 and 2023.
Developed in collaboration with China's meteorological authorities, the model updates forecasts every 15 minutes and has increased accuracy by more than 15%, according to the team. The assessment covered about 20 million square kilometers across mainland China.
The researchers said the model also has the potential to provide global convective weather forecasts if sufficient satellite observation data is available.
Both the China Meteorological Administration and the Hong Kong Observatory are working on incorporating the model into operational forecasts.
Hong Kong and much of southern China faced an unusually high number of typhoons and wet weather in 2025, far above the seasonal norm, scientists said. The city issued its highest rainstorm warning five times last year and its second-highest rainstorm warning 16 times, breaking the respective highest annual figures ever recorded, the Hong Kong Observatory said.
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