How much will the scorching summer cost Europe? - It is estimated at 180 billion euros, about 1% of GDP
The prolonged heatwave that has gripped Europe this summer could wipe out a year of economic growth, according to a study published by Triodos Bank. The analysis estimates that damage caused by extreme heat and wildfires will cost a cumulative €180 billion by 2026, representing around 1% of GDP. Against an expected EU growth of around 1.1% this year, this would leave the bloc close to stagnation.
The bank tracks the damage through four channels, three of which are set as EU averages. Lower crop yields and milk production, plus the resulting food price increases, account for about 0.15%.
Limited nuclear, hydroelectric and thermal power generation, poorer solar efficiency and higher wholesale energy prices add between 0.12% and 0.15%, while disrupted rail, road and water capacity adds another 0.15%. The largest effect, and the most difficult to quantify, is on labour productivity.
Productivity per worker drops when temperatures exceed about 25°C to 30°C, with the biggest losses in outdoor and physically demanding jobs. Office work also suffers, in part because heat disrupts sleep. A cross-country analysis by Allianz, cited in the study, estimates a loss of about 3% in productivity per hour worked for every degree above 30°C maintained during the day.
The results are not a ranking of the hottest countries. Triodos rates each economy by the share of production in exposed sectors, commute time, air conditioning penetration and acclimatization, then multiplies this by the number of extremely hot days recorded this year.
France comes out as the worst hit, losing about 1.4 percentage points of growth, enough to shrink it by about 0.6% from an already weak starting point. The Netherlands loses about 0.8 points, leaving it almost unchanged. Spain and Italy have the most exposed workforces and the hottest days, but decades of adaptation dampen the impact of each.
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