Moody's raises Italy's rating after 23 years/ Reason, political stability and improvement of public finances
Italy has received its first rating upgrade from Moody's since 2002, a major achievement for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The lowest rating among the G7 economies was raised by one notch, from Baa3 to Baa2, while the outlook was set at stable.
Moody's said the upgrade reflects a "consistent track record of political stability and government measures" that have increased the effectiveness of economic and fiscal reforms, as well as investments implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The agency was the last to still maintain such a low rating, waiting for Meloni to enter the fourth year of his term before recognizing improvements in public finances in an unusual period of political stability.
Moody's downgraded Italy to Baa3 in late 2018 under Giuseppe Conte, the latest move in a cycle of downgrades that began with the eurozone debt crisis. In August 2022, the agency even shifted the outlook to negative, moving the country dangerously close to the "junk" category. Meloni came to power shortly after, and the threat of a downgrade accompanied her first year in office, before Moody's reversed course in late 2023.
Since then, the Italian government has made progress in stabilizing its high public debt, the second highest in the eurozone, and in reducing its budget deficit to the EU's 3% limit, which could be achieved this year. This would allow Italy to exit the European Union's fiscal monitoring regime for countries with budget problems.
Moody's expects the country's debt burden to start gradually decreasing from 2027. The new rating is the fourth from a credit agency this year, although Italy remains at least one notch below its rivals. S&P Global Ratings raised Italy's rating in April, while Fitch Ratings upgraded it in September.
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