August, temperatures above normal! - Tropical nights in Mediterranean countries. Even Britain at 35 degrees
Europe is bracing for a "warmer than normal" August after a series of heatwaves. Much of the continent has struggled to cope with temperatures that have soared above 40°C in recent weeks, creating ideal conditions for wildfires that have devastated large parts of France and Spain and forced the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people.
But the chances of long-awaited relief from the high temperatures seem unlikely, as early forecasts warn that further heatwaves are possible.
"Since their early July numbers, the seasonal updates tilt all odds towards a warmer-than-normal August across Europe and agree that the strongest and most certain heat signal is over the Mediterranean and Southeastern Europe," experts say. This includes recurring 'heat clusters' such as Iberia, Italy, Greece and parts of the Balkans.
WFY24 forecasts for the first few days of August show that Naples, Barcelona, Rome, Valencia, Nice, Thessaloniki, Split and Athens will record above 20°C every night. This is classified as a tropical night, which could increase the risk of severe heat stress - especially among vulnerable populations.
Even further north, scorching temperatures are on the horizon. The UK Met Office warns that maximum temperatures are expected to reach 35°C in August as the mercury intensifies.
Advances in weather and climate data have made it easier for scientists to assess the impact of global warming on extreme events, such as heat waves and floods. This is often called extreme event attribution.
Since there are many interacting factors, including natural triggers like El Niño, studies of attribution of extreme events are not looking to find out whether climate change directly caused a heat wave, but rather how warming temperatures have influenced the event.
This is often done by comparing how often an extreme event occurs today compared to how often it would have occurred in a world without human-caused climate change.
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