Europe, on alert before winter - Natural gas storage facilities are emptying
Europe is facing a new energy problem as winter approaches and natural gas reserves remain at particularly low levels. The war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have caused turmoil in markets, reviving fears of a new energy crisis.
European Union natural gas reserves are at their lowest level in 13 years, analysts say, causing concern among energy traders ahead of the winter season. In the last week of August, EU storage facilities were about 63% full, compared with an average of about 80% in the same period in previous years.
At current supply rates, Europe is likely to enter the winter season with reserves about 20% lower than the average of the past five years. Low inventories increase the risk of intense price volatility during the winter, especially if cold temperatures prevail and demand increases.
European prices remained relatively stable over the summer, with the market anticipating that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and allow supplies to replenish. However, these expectations have now softened significantly.
The benchmark price of natural gas in Europe has risen in recent weeks to its highest level in three years, exceeding 68 euros per megawatt-hour, more than double the price at the beginning of the year. The increase is attributed, among other things, to the assessment that Europe will have to compete with Asian markets to secure liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes as winter approaches.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, if natural gas exports from the Middle East do not resume, the European reference price could exceed 100 euros/MWh in order to attract sufficient quantities to meet winter demand.
The concerns are most acute in Western Europe, where stock levels are significantly lower than in countries such as Italy and Poland, which have managed to fill their storage tanks by more than 80%. In Germany, which has the largest natural gas storage capacity in Europe, the facilities are about half full. The problem, according to analysts, is not directly related to Europe's ability to meet its needs, but mainly to the cost at which it will secure the necessary quantities of natural gas, if geopolitical tensions continue.
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