Global markets lose 13-14 million barrels of oil per day - Barclays study: Cause, prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz
Barclays said a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global supply loss of 13-14 million barrels of oil per day, noting that while the scale of the disruption is extraordinary, so is the uncertainty around its duration.
Exports from Yanbu and Fujairah have increased in recent weeks and assuming there is no threat to shipments from these ports, the bank sees a supply disruption of that magnitude possible in the event of a prolonged closure of the Strait. The International Energy Agency estimates that global oil demand this year will be around 104-105 million barrels per day.
Barclays added that the Iran war has caused the biggest geopolitical shock to energy markets since the Gulf War in 1990, driven by unusually tight fundamentals rather than speculative excess.
US President Donald Trump has said Iran is desperate to reach a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting Iran's foreign minister, who said his country was considering a US proposal but had no intention of holding talks to defuse the conflict.
“Despite the uncertainty surrounding ceasefire negotiations, in our base case, we expect traffic through the Strait to normalize by early April, which would be consistent with an average Brent oil price of $85 per barrel in 2026,” Barclays said in a note.
However, if the disruptions continue until the end of April, Brent oil prices for 2026 could be revised to $100 per barrel, and in a more prolonged scenario extending until the end of May, prices could rise to $110.
Oil prices rose over 2% on Thursday, with Brent futures trading at $104.36 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $92.23 a barrel.
Barclays also said that supply elasticity is structurally weaker than in past shocks, with OPEC+ spare capacity being less available and growth from non-OPEC+ countries, led by the US, steadily slowing due to years of underinvestment.
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