Oil Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs Expectations: Average USD 80/barrel in 2024
Goldman Sachs expects Brent oil prices to average $80 a barrel this year despite geopolitical uncertainties, citing a forecast surplus of 0.4% next year
"Brent oil remains in an interval of 70 - 85 dollars, with high reserve capacity, which limits the price set by OPEC and the reduction in the price of shale oil supply. However, the risks are increasing," said Goldman Sachs.
Oil prices rose on Friday in Brent crude futures to $74.37 after Russia announced it had fired a ballistic missile into Ukraine and warned of a possible widening conflict, raising concerns about tight supplies. with crude oil.
The bank sees high risks to Brent prices in the short term, which could rise to around $80 in the first half of 2025 if Iranian supply falls by 1 million bpd as sanctions are imposed on strict. Medium-term price risks are on the downside given the high spare capacity. The investment bank estimates Brent crude will hit around $76 a barrel in 2025, lowering its 2026 forecast to $71 a barrel with a surplus of 0.9%.
Goldman expects oil demand to continue to grow for another decade, driven by rising total energy demand alongside GDP growth and the ongoing challenges of decarbonising air travel and petrochemicals.
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