OPEC+ loses influence in the oil market - Inability to be dominant increases
Six months after the start of the Iran war, the world's most powerful oil alliance, OPEC+, finds itself in an unfamiliar position: unable to influence a market it once helped shape.
The war, which has closed a key export route for Middle Eastern oil and damaged energy infrastructure in several OPEC countries, has eroded the group's market share and, with it, its ability to influence prices. Its policy statements and decisions barely move oil markets.
Instead, cuts in Chinese crude oil imports have emerged as one of the dominant themes of 2026, helping to balance oil markets amid what analysts describe as the worst supply disruption ever.
OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, accounted for about 40% of global oil production in July, according to estimates based on data from the International Energy Agency. That is down from 48% before the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February, although about four to five percentage points of the decline was due to the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC in May.
OPEC was formed in 1960 and the expanded OPEC+ framework was created in 2016 when Russia and other producers joined forces to help the group cope with a decline in its share of global oil production.
OPEC's share of global crude oil production peaked at around 50% during the oil crises of the 1970s before falling to 30% by the mid-1980s, as production from the North Sea, Alaska and Siberia increased.
Since March, the main OPEC+ group has announced six oil production increases. However, due to the blockade of Hormuz, most have remained largely on paper, with the decisions having little effect on oil prices, except in July during a brief US-Iran ceasefire that raised hopes that Hormuz would reopen.
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