Oil "takes a leap" after Russian attacks in Ukraine - Reason, the possibility of new sanctions against the Kremlin
Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Monday, recovering some of last week's losses, helped by expectations of new sanctions on Russian oil following an airstrike in Ukraine.
OPEC+ (which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other allies such as Russia) signaled that it would further increase oil production starting in October, but the added amount is expected to be modest.
The group has been increasing production since April after years of cuts to support the oil market. The latest decision comes despite the risk of a supply glut during the northern hemisphere winter months.
Eight OPEC+ members will increase production starting in October by 137,000 barrels per day, a much smaller amount compared to increases of about 555,000 barrels per day for the months of September and August.
"Oil prices were supported by the fact that the increase in production by OPEC+ was more modest than expected, as well as by a technical recovery after last week's decline," analysts explain. According to them, expectations of a more limited supply thanks to the possibility of new US sanctions on Russia are also supporting prices. US President Donald Trump has stated that he is ready to move to a second phase of sanctions against the Kremlin.
Russia launched its biggest airstrike of the war on Ukraine, damaging the main government building in central Kiev and killing at least four people, Ukrainian authorities said. "Chances for peace in the Russia-Ukraine war are fading and there is no expectation that Russian oil will flood the markets," one industry expert said.
According to Goldman Sachs, a slight oil supply surplus is expected in 2026, as increases in US production will outweigh reduced supply from Russia and stronger global demand.
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