"More oil surplus next year" - IEA: Global production will increase, while demand has slowed

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the global oil market will face an even bigger surplus next year, up to 4.09 million barrels per day. OPEC+ producers and their rivals are expected to increase output as demand growth slows.
"Global oil market balances are looking increasingly unbalanced, as global oil supply is increasing while demand growth remains modest by historical standards," the agency said in its monthly report for November.
The institute expects global oil supply to increase by about 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.5 million barrels per day next year. That would bring the projected surplus for 2026 to 120,000 barrels per day, up from the 3.97 million barrels per day it said in its October report.
Global oil production was 6.2 million barrels per day higher in October than at the start of the year, split evenly between OPEC+ producers and others. Saudi Arabia contributed 1.5 million barrels per day of the increase, while Russia added just 120,000 barrels per day due to sanctions and the Ukraine attacks.
Despite new US sanctions on Russian firms Rosneft and Lukoil, which "could have a broader impact on global oil markets," Russian exports have continued largely uninterrupted, the report noted.
The agency also expanded its demand growth forecasts by 80,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 70,000 barrels per day for 2026, citing increased needs for petrochemical feedstocks.
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