"49 million people, acute food insecurity" - World Food Program predicts the effects of El Niño
A powerful meteorological event like El Niño could push an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity in some of the world's most vulnerable regions by the end of next year, the World Food Programme said.
According to a report by the UN agency, there was an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño event, with sea surface temperatures at their warmest levels since at least 1982 and potentially making it the strongest such event since 1950.
El Niño, a periodic warming of ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific, alters global weather patterns and is often associated with drought in southern Africa, delayed monsoons in parts of Asia and erratic rainfall elsewhere.
The World Food Programme estimates that the number of people facing acute food insecurity could increase by nearly 49 million, reaching a total of 274 million people. This is a 22% increase compared to the base population already experiencing crisis-level food insecurity or worse, based on an analysis of 45 countries considered vulnerable to the negative effects of El Niño.
Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the hardest-hit regions, with the number of food-insecure people expected to increase by 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa, the report said.
Southern Africa, as well as South America and the Caribbean, could each see more than 12 million more people fall into acute food insecurity.
The agency said current forecasts point to rainfall deficits in parts of East Africa, the Sahel, Central America and the Caribbean, while flood risks could increase in Somalia and neighboring areas. Significant impacts are also projected across South and Southeast Asia, where drought risks, erratic monsoons and localized flooding could disrupt agricultural production, the report said.
The agency stressed that forecasts remain uncertain and that impacts will vary in different regions, but warned that governments and aid agencies should prepare.
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