War brings back coal - Global demand expected to reach record in 2026
The conflict in the Middle East is also changing the global energy market. Coal demand is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2026, reaching a record 8.94 billion tons, according to the International Energy Agency.
The increase is largely due to disruptions to oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which have been ongoing since the US-Iran war. The restrictions have pushed up gas prices and made it more cost-effective to use coal for electricity generation.
This trend has been observed in Europe, Japan, South Korea, China and other markets, where coal-fired power plants are being used more than anticipated.
The agency had expected global coal demand to fall slightly this year, but developments in the Middle East have changed the outlook.
The situation remains uncertain even for 2027. If maritime traffic through Hormuz returns to normal, coal demand could fall. Conversely, if the strait continues to restrict gas transport, coal use could increase even further.
Meanwhile, global production is expected to decline this year, but will remain above 9 billion tonnes for the third year in a row. China, the world's largest producer, has seen output fall as safety controls were implemented following a serious mine accident in May.
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