"AI can transform global trade"/ WTO: The value of trade exchanges could increase by 40% by 2040
Artificial intelligence could increase the value of trade in goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040, according to the World Trade Organization. However, without appropriate policies, the technology could also deepen economic disparities, the report warns.
Lower costs and increased productivity could lead to significant increases in trade and GDP by 2040. Under different scenarios, global trade is expected to increase by 34–37%, while global GDP could grow by 12–13%. "Artificial intelligence can be a breakthrough for trade in an increasingly complex environment," said WTO officials. According to them, innovative technology is reshaping the future of the global economy, with the potential to reduce trade costs and increase productivity.
Global trade rules, overseen by the Geneva-based WTO, have faced significant strains this year following tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The report notes that businesses can cut costs in logistics, regulatory compliance and communications.
"Translation technologies based on artificial intelligence can make communication faster and more cost-effective, particularly helping small manufacturers and retailers expand their presence in global markets," the study says.
These advances could help boost exports to low-income countries by up to 11%, provided they improve their digital infrastructure. However, the report warns that without targeted investment and inclusive policies, technology could deepen existing divisions.
To ensure that the benefits of artificial intelligence are shared equitably, the WTO stresses that predictable, rules-based trade is needed. Also, reducing tariffs on essential technology raw materials, including semiconductors, is essential.
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