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Analiza Posted on 2025-02-04 14:36:00

Analysis/ Europe's 'iron' leaders no longer seem so strong!

From Edel Strazimiri

Analysis/ Europe's 'iron' leaders no longer seem so strong!

Europe's so-called "strong" leaders, most of whom are allies with allies like US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, are looking increasingly weak, analysts say, with their popularity waning ahead of key elections.

Trump's inauguration was expected to deliver a boost to nationalist-populist leaders and parties such as Hungary's Viktor Orban, Slovakia's Robert Fico, Germany's far-right AfD, and Marine Le Pen and her Rally National party in France. But such a surge is not a foregone conclusion, as domestic pressures and economic challenges weigh on their popularity and power.

“Donald Trump’s re-election to a second term in the US seemed to be a clarion call for a structural political shift towards similar, MAGA-style populist movements across Europe,” analysts say. MAGA refers to “Make America Great Again,” a slogan that has historically underpinned Trump’s nationalist campaign.

"In fact what we are seeing is a somewhat mixed picture across Europe, and in fact with many of Trump's apostles still standing," they said.

Are there no more 'iron' leaders?

The leaders of Hungary and Slovakia, President Viktor Orban and Prime Minister Robert Fico, are often classified as "strongman" types and similar to President Putin, with whom they have continued to have warm relations since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Although members of the European Union, both countries have pushed back against the bloc's initiatives to cut ties with Moscow, such as reducing imports of Russian gas and oil. Instead, the nations have chosen to conserve supplies amid fears of rising energy costs at home.

Both leaders have also been vocally critical of providing more military and financial aid to Ukraine and have threatened to refuse to support an extension of sanctions on Russia, although, last Monday, Orban backed down from that position after being given energy security guarantees from the bloc.

Orban and Fico are seeing declining popularity at home and growing dissatisfaction with their leadership in public and in parliament. Orban’s poll ratings have fallen, while those of his main political rival Péter Magyar have been rising. Fico, meanwhile, narrowly avoided a no-confidence motion in January after his political opponents abandoned the measure.

Both men could face defeat at the ballot box in the near future, analysts say, with parliamentary elections due next year in Hungary and in 2027 in Slovakia, although a vote could come sooner given a deepening political crisis for Fico in which his government looks increasingly vulnerable.

"Despite the opposition's withdrawal of a no-confidence motion earlier in January, last week Prime Minister Robert Fico saw his governing coalition lose its majority in parliament after four MPs withdrew their support, " analysts in the field say.

“Fico also faced some of the largest public protests since 1989 in opposition to his government’s increasingly pro-Russian foreign policy. More demonstrations are planned this week. Meanwhile, recent opinion polls show that the opposition Progressive Slovakia has overtaken SMER-SSD [Fico’s left-wing populist party] as the most popular party in the country ,” they added.

Meanwhile, in Hungary, Fico’s ally Orban has been under increasing domestic pressure this year, with the rapid rise in popularity of opposition leader Peter Magyar and his Tisza Party. Various opinion polls since November have shown Tisza ahead of Orban’s Fidesz party, with 35%-45% support among voters, some four to six percentage points ahead of Fidesz. If this trend continues, the anti-EU populist Orban could lose the 2026 election.

“Orban and Fidesz’s media are relentlessly emphasizing his international and diplomatic importance through his contacts with Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as well as his ‘smart’ peace efforts in the Ukraine war and the apparent major diplomatic achievements of Hungary’s EU presidency,” analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said in a note in January.

"But the reality is that Orban is facing his most difficult year since first coming to power in 2010. This will further undermine his ability to seize, let alone steer, the EU's agenda as the bloc's preeminent populist leader," they added.

A break for Brussels?

Populist parties across the EU have gained much popularity over the past decade, with the growing dominance of Germany’s AfD and France’s National Rally, both of which, after undeniable electoral successes, now have considerable influence over the respective policy directions of their national governments. Euroscepticism and anti-immigration sentiment were largely fueled by public dissatisfaction with the EU’s response to undocumented migration to the continent.

Upcoming elections in Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic could see anti-EU populist parties gain more ground this year, but anti-EU governments will fall far short of the blocking minority needed in the European Council to seriously disrupt EU decision-making, Eurasia said. The group noted:

"Where they are in government, they tend to shift towards the political center, with the notable exception of Hungary. Much of the far-right's prospects will therefore depend on whether governments can find more effective ways to deal with the lingering migration crisis that is the strongest driver of populist support in the EU," the analysts said.

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