Venezuela's crude oil production is expected to increase - Analysts say global prices will decrease in the coming years
Venezuela's crude oil production is expected to rise, adding to global supply and weighing on prices in the long term, analysts said. U.S. forces seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas over the weekend and U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of the oil-producing nation and that the U.S. embargo on all Venezuelan oil remained in place.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member holds about 17% of global oil reserves, or 303 billion barrels, ahead of OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, according to the London-based Energy Institute.
Venezuela produced up to 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in the 1970s, which at the time represented over 7% of global oil production. Production fell below 2 million barrels per day during the 2010s and averaged about 1.1 million barrels per day last year, or just 1% of global production.
JPMorgan analysts said in a note that with a political transition, Venezuela could increase oil production to 1.3-1.4 million barrels per day within two years and potentially reach 2.5 million barrels per day over the next decade, from about 800,000 barrels per day currently.
Goldman Sachs analysts said any recovery in production could be gradual and require significant investment. They estimated a $4 per barrel drop in oil prices by 2030 in a scenario where Venezuela's crude oil production increases to 2 million barrels per day.
In the short term, the outlook for Venezuelan oil production this year will depend on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves, Goldman analysts said.
Goldman's oil price forecasts for 2026 remained unchanged, with Brent averaging $56 and West Texas Intermediate at $52 per barrel, while Venezuelan oil production for 2026 is forecast to remain unchanged at 900,000 barrels per day.
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