Nuclear weapons out of control? - The latest Russia-US treaty expires today. Still no agreement
The latest Russia-US nuclear arms control treaty, known as New START, expires today. Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed that both sides stick to existing nuclear arms limits for another year, to buy time to determine what happens next. US President Donald Trump has not formally responded to Putin's offer.
If both sides cannot agree to maintain limitations on missiles and nuclear warheads, they will be left for the first time in more than half a century without mutual limits on the size of their strategic arsenals.
Even at the height of their Cold War nuclear rivalry, the United States and the Soviet Union signed a series of treaties to prevent the arms race from spiraling out of control.
According to an Atlantic Council document, Russia had refused since 2023 to accept mutual inspections that would give Washington assurance that Moscow was continuing to comply with the treaty. Obeying Putin's proposal would also send a message to China that the United States would not build up its strategic nuclear forces in response to China's rapidly growing nuclear arsenal.
According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia and the United States have estimated total inventories of 5,459 and 5,177 nuclear warheads, respectively. Together, they account for nearly 87% of all such warheads globally. However, China has accelerated its nuclear program and now has about 600 nuclear warheads. The Pentagon estimates that it will have more than 1,000 by 2030.
While Trump has stated that he wants to pursue "denuclearization" with both Russia and China, Beijing says it is "unreasonable and unrealistic" to be asked to join trilateral nuclear disarmament talks with countries whose arsenals are much larger.
Further complicating the prospects for global arms control, Russia says the nuclear forces of NATO members Britain and France should also be in the negotiations, something these countries reject.
Analysts believe that the attempt to create a new multilateral nuclear treaty in this environment is almost a dead end and will take a long time. An alternative would be for Russia and the United States to draft a successor to New START, which would include flexible limits on nuclear warheads, taking into account the strengthening of Chinese weapons.
But a quicker and more direct path would be for countries to focus on steps to significantly reduce the risk of an accidental nuclear war.
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