Extreme heat and global warming - Scientists warn of new records by 2030
Scientists are warning of record, extreme heat and a growing risk of exceeding key global warming thresholds by 2030. Prepare for several years of even higher heat that pushes the Earth towards more deadly, fiery and uncomfortable extremes, two of the world's top weather agencies predict.
There is an 80% chance that the world will break another annual temperature record in the next five years and is even more likely to again exceed the international temperature threshold set 10 years ago, according to a five-year forecast published by the World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office.
With every tenth of a degree that the world warms from human-caused climate change, we will experience higher frequency and more extreme events.
For the first time, there is also a chance, albeit small, that before the end of the decade, the world's annual temperature will exceed the Paris climate agreement's goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and reach a more alarming 2 degrees Celsius of warming since the mid-1800s, the two agencies said.
Scientists calculated that there is an 86% chance that one of the next five years will exceed 1.5 degrees and a 70% chance that the five years as a whole will average more than that global benchmark. The projections come from more than 200 predictions using computer simulations run by 10 global centers of scientists.
Ten years ago, the same teams calculated that there was a similarly remote chance of about 1% that one of the next few years would exceed that critical 1.5-degree threshold. Then last year happened. This year, a temperature of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels enters the equation in a similar way, something experts in the field call “shocking.”
Technically, even though 2024 was 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, the Paris climate agreement threshold is for a 20-year time frame, so it has not been exceeded. Taking the past 10 years into account and projecting the next 10 years, the world is now probably about 1.4 degrees Celsius warmer than it was in the mid-1800s, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
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