Tariff "wave" arrives in 2026 - European businesses prepare for greater consequences from US tariffs

European businesses will suffer much greater consequences in 2026 from US tariffs compared to this year, when several precautionary measures reduced the consequences, according to a BusinessEurope survey.
The survey found that trade tensions are expected to reduce Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the EU and a wider group of European countries by 0.03 percentage points. For 2026, the negative impact is expected to be 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points, with the euro area facing the greatest consequences.
The survey was based on responses from 36 national business federations in the European Union and countries outside the EU, such as Britain, Switzerland, Turkey and Ukraine.
BusinessEurope stressed that the data is consistent with the European Central Bank's position, according to which the impact of tariffs and uncertainty on eurozone growth is expected to be around 0.7 percentage points between 2025 and 2027.
The figure was less than previously expected, with political uncertainty receding quickly following the EU-US deal in late July, according to the Central Bank.
However, BusinessEurope reported that companies still express concerns about the lack of predictability and that the delayed economic impact and uncertainty over future US tariffs pose medium-term challenges to growth.
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