UBS "shrinks" Greece's economic growth - But the Swiss bank remains optimistic about next year
A new report by UBS (Union Bank of Switzerland) has lowered its forecast for Greece's economic growth in 2025, from 2.6% to 2.3%.
At the same time, the report reflected positivity for 2026, with an expansion from 2.3% to 2.4%, thanks to three main factors: strong consumption, significant investment opportunities through EU funds, and tourism.
However, UBS warns that several factors could test the economy's resilience. According to the bank, the biggest short-term factor is tariffs and their impact on eurozone growth.
The bank notes that 65% of Greek exports to the US are covered by common tariffs, not sectoral agreements. A 1% slowdown in eurozone growth could reduce Greek GDP by 1.1%.
The second factor is natural disasters, such as fires and floods, which can damage tourism, agriculture, and other important sectors.
Finally, a slower absorption of EU funds through the Recovery and Sustainability Mechanism could negatively impact economic growth.
In the medium term, the end of these funds in 2026 is expected to create a gap that will not be easily filled by EU agricultural policy or cohesion funds. Also, decisions to limit short-term rentals and increase cruise ship fees could negatively impact tourism.
The Swiss bank also emphasizes that the ratio of investment to Gross Domestic Product and labor productivity still remain at very low levels.
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