Greece's primary surplus to rise by 2026 - Report predicts debt to shrink by over 10% in coming years
Greece will achieve higher-than-expected primary budget surpluses in the three-year period ending in 2026 and the country's debt will fall by more than 10 percentage points from 2024 to 2026, according to the European Commission forecast.
The European Commission called the debt reduction a "major achievement". Regarding the high inflation in Greece, the report explained the significant increase in food prices due to the devastating floods in the Thessaly region in September 2023. Other influencing factors were the increase in olive oil and energy prices. However, the inflation rate is expected to decline in the coming months.
The EU forecasts a primary budget surplus of 2.9% of GDP in 2024 and 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. If achieved, the 2024 primary surplus will be the third largest in the EU.
This exceeds even the last estimates of the Ministry of Finance of the country, before the presentation of the final draft budget, for a surplus of 2.6-2.7% of the GDP. The 2025 budget predicts a surplus of 2.4% for next year, and the medium-term stability plan presented calls for a similar surplus in 2026. According to the data, the EU's forecasts are more "optimistic", showing higher figures high.
The Ministry of Finance in Greece explains that the differences in estimates come from the fact that the EU has not taken into account the supplementary budget of 2024, which added 400 million euros to the Public Investment Program. Furthermore, for 2025 and 2026, the government intends to spend an additional 500 million euros, making full use of the increase in spending (3.7% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026) that the Stability Pact allows.
Regarding the public debt, the Commission predicts that it will reach 153.1% of the Gross Domestic Product in 2024, 146.8% in 2025 and 142.7% in 2028, slightly higher than the government's estimates.
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