Gas prices in Europe have doubled - It is predicted that the worst is yet to come
Europe is in the midst of another summer heatwave. That’s partly why the coming winter is shaping up to be a costly one. Record temperatures are driving up demand for electricity, while drought and heat are holding back hydroelectric and nuclear generation. That’s forcing gas-fired power plants to fill some of the gap, just as Europe needs to put more gas into storage. That pressure is already showing up in wholesale gas prices.
Dutch TTF futures contracts, Europe's main gas benchmark, have risen by roughly 120% since the start of 2026, reaching around 63.7 euros per megawatt-hour on August 18.
Gas prices remain well below the peak of €350/MWh reached during the 2022 energy crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But Europe is heading into winter with dwindling reserves and little room for another supply shock.
Europe normally spends the summer rebuilding gas inventories before households start using them for heating. This year, that replenishment has faced a series of disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz remains virtually closed, Norway has extended outages at its gas fields, and drought has reduced hydroelectric and nuclear production.
Gas-fired power plants have filled some of that gap, as demand for electricity surges during heatwaves, increasing demand for the same fuel that Europe needs to stockpile for winter. The result is a market with little room to manoeuvre.
Europe has reduced its gas consumption by around 15%-20% compared to 2021. Industry has reduced its use of gas, renewable energy sources have expanded, and heat pumps have replaced some gas-fired heating systems. Global LNG supplies have also increased. Europe has more import terminals and can attract cargoes when prices rise. This makes a complete physical shortage much less likely than it was during the 2021-2022 crisis. But lower consumption does not eliminate Europe’s biggest vulnerability.
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