Italy faces strong population decline - ISTAT warns of a contraction of around 4 million inhabitants by 2050
Italy's population is expected to shrink by almost 4 million by 2050, creating huge pressure on the economy and welfare system, warns the National Institute of Statistics, ISTAT.
According to new demographic projections, the resident population will fall from 58.9 million in 2025 to around 55 million in 2050. The decline is expected to continue further, with the population reaching only 45.8 million by 2080.
One of the main factors is the continuing decline in births. Last year, Italy registered around 355,000 births, the lowest level since the country's unification in 1861. ISTAT predicts that the number of births will drop to around 335,000 by 2050.
At the same time, the number of deaths is expected to rise sharply. From around 652,000 deaths recorded last year, a peak of around 869,000 is predicted in 2058, as the baby boomers enter old age.
Population aging will be another challenge. The percentage of people over 65 is expected to increase from 24.7% in 2025 to 34.5% in 2050. Meanwhile, the working-age population is expected to decline from 63.4% to 55.3%.
ISTAT warns that fewer workers and more retirees will create new challenges for the economy and the welfare system.
The decline will not be the same across the country. Southern Italy is expected to be hit hardest, with the population projected to fall from 19.7 million in 2025 to around 16.7 million by 2050.
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