"Europe on the brink of energy crisis" - Goldman Sachs: The risk comes from increased demand, lack of investment
Europe risks facing a new electricity crisis unless nearly 3 trillion euros are invested over the next decade. This is the main message from Goldman Sachs, which in a recent analysis identifies three main risks: increasing demand, a lack of investment in energy networks, and the complexity that renewables add to the energy mix.
Electricity demand, after 15 years of decline, is expected to grow by 1.5%-2% per year until 2030, driven by electromobility, heat pumps, data centres and air conditioning needs. After 2030, the growth rate could reach 2.5%-3.5%. Meanwhile, Europe's electricity infrastructure is the oldest in the world, with an average age of 45-50 years. Up to 1.4 trillion euros are required to upgrade and modernise transmission and distribution networks.
In generation, the situation is even more complex. By 2030, 75% of installed capacity will come from renewable sources. This increases volatility and reduces security of supply unless backup units such as natural gas stations, energy storage and better connections between networks are developed in time. It is estimated that an additional 1-1.4 trillion euros will be needed for new generation infrastructure and supporting technologies.
If these investments are not made, reserves could run out by 2029-2030, increasing the risk of major power outages. An illustrative example is the power outage in Spain in April, which according to Goldman Sachs was linked to instability in the transmission grid and the presence of excess renewable energy. Five minutes before the outage, 80% of the power came from solar energy.
The report also offers a more positive perspective: those who invest early in the sector will be the winners. Goldman Sachs predicts a “golden age” for companies like Enel, Iberdrola, National Grid, etc., with annual earnings per share growth of 9% until 2030, and even 11% in a scenario of severe shortages.
In conclusion, without massive investments in networks, energy storage and new forms of production, Europe's transition risks turning into an energy crisis.
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