ECB warns Italy - "Budget measures could harm banks and lending"

Measures set out in Italy's 2026 budget could have "negative consequences" for banks' liquidity, the European Central Bank (ECB) said. According to the institution, these measures could prompt banks to lower deposit interest rates to pay less tax, which would weaken their liquidity reserves.
The ECB also added that higher taxes could prompt domestic banks to further reduce already modest lending to households and businesses, as well as negatively impact investor confidence in Italy.
Budget measures affecting banks and insurers, including restrictions on how lenders use interest expenses to reduce their tax bill, are estimated to reach over 11 billion euros by 2028, according to Italian Treasury estimates.
“The repeated imposition of tax provisions unfairly increases policy uncertainty regarding the fiscal framework, undermining investor confidence and potentially also affecting the funding costs of credit institutions,” the ECB said.
Italy is unlikely to radically revise its budget plans following the ECB's criticism, given that the contribution from the banking sector finances more than 20% of the tax cuts and spending increases that serve households and businesses in the period 2026–2028.
Both houses of the Italian parliament are expected to approve the budget before the end of the year. Italian banks have faced widespread criticism from Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's right-wing coalition for failing to reward depositors or offer better lending conditions to businesses, despite record profits boosted by high interest rates and state guarantee schemes in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, the ECB warned Italy that increasing the tax burden on banks could lead to “immediate adjustments” in lending to the real economy, especially given the already moderate levels of bank lending in Italy.
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