Bota Posted on 2026-02-26 10:04:00

How much did global tariffs affect developing countries? - EBRD report: Economies were minimally affected

From Dorian Koça

How much did global tariffs affect developing countries? - EBRD report:

US tariffs have changed the direction of trade, allowing for stronger-than-expected economic growth in some emerging markets, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said.

Growth in the 40 countries covered by the institution was at a higher level than the forecast of 3.4%, but the bank warned that ongoing trade unrest could hamper growth in some of the economies.

Slowing inflation and heavy spending on infrastructure projects - particularly in Europe - were helping, but the report also showed that the impacts of President Donald Trump's trade tariffs were not as strong as expected.

The bank now expects growth of 3.6% this year and 3.7% in 2027 - both a 0.2 percentage point upward revision compared to its autumn forecasts.

Exports from some EBRD countries to the United States even increased, especially those related to the artificial intelligence boom, as these countries replaced China's exports.

Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland all export artificial intelligence-related products, such as servers, processors and computer systems, meaning they could benefit from this shift.

But the EBRD warned that the full impact of the tariffs remained unclear; most of the trade reflected in the report arrived in the US before the tariffs were imposed and there was added uncertainty following the US Supreme Court ruling.

According to the EBRD, the state of emergency due to the war in Ukraine and subsequent increases in defense spending could drain money from other government priorities, while the ultimate impact will depend on whether that money is spent on one-off equipment purchases or on infrastructure such as roads and hospitals that could also help the economy.

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