"Lithium prices to stabilize in 2025" - Mine closures, increased sales of electric cars will reduce the glut
Lithium prices are expected to stabilize in 2025 after two years of sharp decline. The closure of mines and high sales of electric vehicles in China will help reduce the glut, but the reopening of mines could prevent prices from rising too much, analysts and traders say.
A nearly 86% drop in metal prices over the past two years from their peak in November 2022 has forced companies to close mines around the world. Experts say the closures mean that increased demand is set to outpace supply this year as China ramps up policy support to boost sales in the world's largest electric car market.
The global lithium supply glut is forecast to halve to around 80,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent from nearly 150,000 last year, according to Antaike, China's state-run commodity data provider.
China's subsidies for electric cars contributed to a surge in lithium prices late last year and should continue to support prices in 2025, analysts said.
Project Blue expects prices to stabilize at an average of around $11,092 per metric ton in 2025.
Experts, however, warned that any significant price increases this year are likely to be limited as production could rise rapidly at many closed mines if it proves profitable.
Potential US policy changes under the incoming Trump administration, including new tariffs on battery imports from China or reduced domestic incentives for electric cars, could also pose risks to lithium demand.
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