Global oil demand falls - IEA: Closure of Hormuz and high prices are affecting consumption
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2026, citing the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel prices that are impacting consumption. In its August Oil Market Report, the IEA forecast global oil demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, 510,000 bpd more than its July estimate.
Tensions in the Middle East and maritime disruptions in July and early August undermined efforts to restore supply, prompting the IEA to lower its forecast for third-quarter oil supply by 1.7 mb/d from its previous report.
Crude oil prices rose to a two-month high in July as the recovery in Gulf oil supplies reversed course after the collapse of the Iran-US ceasefire deal in mid-June. Oil prices traded within an unusually wide range of US$40 a barrel in July, driven by unexpected changes in diplomatic expectations, she said.
The IEA said high fuel prices were putting further downward pressure on oil consumption. Global oil demand is forecast to expand by 2.4 mb/d in 2027.
Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicted in its August report that global oil demand would grow by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2006, 25 percent down from its July forecast of 800,000 barrels per day.
A major contributor to the downward revision is the Asian market, with China, India and other Asian countries forecast to have the weakest annual growth in oil demand in 2026, the report said. The report said Asia, along with Europe, is expected to drive this growth as demand recovers.
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