Americans "hesitating" about Black Friday - Lower spending expected due to trade tariffs
A record number of Americans will go shopping this Friday for Black Friday, but their spending is expected to be more limited, as deals are dampened by high tariff costs.
Marking the highest turnout ever during the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday (December 1), 186.9 million people will go shopping, up from 183.4 million a year ago. However, sales growth for the final two months of the year, crucial for retailers, is expected to slow.
Thanksgiving falls on November 27 this year, giving retailers an extra day in the holiday season, which typically accounts for a third of annual sales. Retailers have launched early promotions to help drive sales: Walmart's campaign began on November 14 and will run in three phases through December 1, with Walmart+ members getting early access. Amazon kicked off its Black Friday week of deals on November 20, while Macy's opened a dedicated portal for the day.
Sales in November and December, both in physical stores and online, are forecast to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, growing by 3.7% to 4.2%, but the expansion will be at a slower pace compared to last year's 4.8%.
While higher prices may discourage some shoppers, others are limiting spending, considering the higher costs of other necessities.
Shoppers still have plenty of savings, as households of all income levels hold more savings than they did in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Bank of America data for November. The data also shows that consumers are not tapping their savings significantly.
The federation estimates that the average spending on gifts and seasonal items, such as decorations, cards, food and sweets, will reach $890 per person, slightly down from last year’s $902. Nearly two-thirds of the 8,427 consumers surveyed say they will wait for Thanksgiving weekend deals, up from 59% in 2024, with older shoppers leading the trend.
While some retailers appear to be pulling back on promotions, Walmart is signaling some significant price cuts for Black Friday.
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